by David Nicholas
“Whether you held an Obama sign or a Romney sign, you made your voice heard and you made a difference.”
“These arguments we have are marks of our liberty. People in distant nations are risking their lives for a chance to argue, for a chance to cast their ballots like we did.”
“Democracy in a nation of 300 million can be noisy and messy and complicated … That won’t change after tonight.” ——Barack Hussein Obama, 44^th President of the United States, 2008-2015
It’s just about an hour since the 2012 race was declared by the major networks that president Obama to be re-elected. The cheering crowds are waiting for Mr. Obama to appear to give his acceptance speech and Governor Romney after an hour of trying to believe the inevitable loss, finally conceded defeat.
However, when all’s said and done it wasn’t a long night nor a long count. At this time the President is holding a 303 electoral college voted to Governor Romney’s 203. While Alaska, Florida and Ohio have yet to be included in the electoral vote, the counts are in Mr. Obama’s favor. The remaining votes to be counted in those states are in big Democratic counties.
When those states are included in the total it should be 341 for Mr. Obama, 203 for Mr. Romney a decisive win for the first term President.
The popular vote at time of writing has the President leading with 53,538,l142 (50%) to 52,825,789 (49%) for Mr. Romney. In the end he may end up with a very slim lead in the popular vote and it will be argued that he does not have a mandate to introduce anymore radical legislative programs, but that’s not for here, at this moment.
A win is a win and the Obama campaign did its homework, setting up its strategy and election models a year before it came to the campaign. Then it followed the plan without deviation, adjusting here and there as needed.
The big deal is about the polls. Polls are right until they are wrong. The big winner in this methodology is the New York Time‘s Nate Silver, whose 538 column did methodology, averaging out the 60+ pollsters keeping tabs on the voters’ pulse. His calculations were right on the money. Just for the record, Mr. Silver devised his method from picking winners in baseball games, from the playoff to the World Series.
History will record that it is the first time an elected first-term black American president won re-election to a second term. It is over, and in the opinion of the Beat, the best man won. And for many, so say all of us.
There will be much more in my December column. And the Beat goes on.